From the perspective of an opposition party, everything is going right for the BJP at the moment. It has put the rudderless UPA government in an embarrassing position on all major issues; it has refused to give the government the breathing space to function normally; negotiated the Anna Hazare wave cleverly to gain popularity points; and managed to distract attention from its own scandals in states. Its only problem is, there’s not a general election around the corner.
There’s no way it can translate the current anti-Congress and anti-UPA mood into electoral dividends. Had there been an election now, it could have hoped for a better performance compared to 2009, cashing in on the support of the neo middle class. That the party is caught in its own contradictions, has its own leadership crisis and does not have any answers to the problems bothering the Congress, which leads the UPA, would have been overlooked by the voters desperately seeking change.
It realises that as the principal opposition, it has the advantage of taking a populist position on issues comfortably even though it might have to do a U-turn on these when it comes to power. It does not have to bother too much about siding with Team Anna on the Lokpal controversy and getting the government to put FDI in different sectors on hold. The UPA and the Congress are under siege. The popular mood is not exactly in BJP’s favour but it is not against the party either. It would be politically foolish to let go of any opportunity to make a statement.
One such opportunity comes for the party on Wednesday when all political parties meet, under the shadow of Anna Hazare’s threat to go on fast again, to take up the Lokpal Bill cleared by the Standing Committee of Parliament. The UPA’s desperation to avoid any confrontation with Team Anna is clear. It would like some kind of consensus on the bill, so that it does not look ridiculous in Parliament once more. Its effort to push through the FDI in retail proposal was a disaster. The BJP, of course, was the major opponent. It is not likely to make things easier for the government or the Congress this time too.
The equations around are interesting. Team Anna is using the BJP in its fight for the Jan Lokpal Bill; the BJP is using Team Anna to take on the Congress. It’s an equation of mutual benefit. The Congress wants the BJP on its side to take on Team Anna – after all the ultimate power at the Centre stays with either of them, the other parties are too small to challenge that order. So they could be partners against a common adversary for the moment. The BJP, which is not fully convinced about Team Anna’s proposals, loses face if it takes a position that helps the UPA. It has committed itself to adversarial politics too far to make such compromises. The others in the picture—elements in the NDA, the UPA and those outside—have to take calls that are nuanced. But the present scenario does not allow nuanced positions.
The complicated equations leaves one party with all the advantages: the BJP. But without elections the advantages make little sense. Thus party’s strategy would be to bring down the government and force an election. With more than two years to go for the government, the situation could change dramatically. It’s possible that the Congress would go for a leadership change and announce policies that could influence voters. At that point, Team Anna might have lost its appeal or would have turned favourable to the UPA.
Thus now is the moment for the BJP. The party realises this. It shows in his aggressive actions in Parliament and outside it. But there is a catch here. Are the allies in the NDA ready for it?
Without allies on board, the BJP’s political game plan is bound to crashland.
There’s no way it can translate the current anti-Congress and anti-UPA mood into electoral dividends. Had there been an election now, it could have hoped for a better performance compared to 2009, cashing in on the support of the neo middle class. That the party is caught in its own contradictions, has its own leadership crisis and does not have any answers to the problems bothering the Congress, which leads the UPA, would have been overlooked by the voters desperately seeking change.
It realises that as the principal opposition, it has the advantage of taking a populist position on issues comfortably even though it might have to do a U-turn on these when it comes to power. It does not have to bother too much about siding with Team Anna on the Lokpal controversy and getting the government to put FDI in different sectors on hold. The UPA and the Congress are under siege. The popular mood is not exactly in BJP’s favour but it is not against the party either. It would be politically foolish to let go of any opportunity to make a statement.
One such opportunity comes for the party on Wednesday when all political parties meet, under the shadow of Anna Hazare’s threat to go on fast again, to take up the Lokpal Bill cleared by the Standing Committee of Parliament. The UPA’s desperation to avoid any confrontation with Team Anna is clear. It would like some kind of consensus on the bill, so that it does not look ridiculous in Parliament once more. Its effort to push through the FDI in retail proposal was a disaster. The BJP, of course, was the major opponent. It is not likely to make things easier for the government or the Congress this time too.
The equations around are interesting. Team Anna is using the BJP in its fight for the Jan Lokpal Bill; the BJP is using Team Anna to take on the Congress. It’s an equation of mutual benefit. The Congress wants the BJP on its side to take on Team Anna – after all the ultimate power at the Centre stays with either of them, the other parties are too small to challenge that order. So they could be partners against a common adversary for the moment. The BJP, which is not fully convinced about Team Anna’s proposals, loses face if it takes a position that helps the UPA. It has committed itself to adversarial politics too far to make such compromises. The others in the picture—elements in the NDA, the UPA and those outside—have to take calls that are nuanced. But the present scenario does not allow nuanced positions.
The complicated equations leaves one party with all the advantages: the BJP. But without elections the advantages make little sense. Thus party’s strategy would be to bring down the government and force an election. With more than two years to go for the government, the situation could change dramatically. It’s possible that the Congress would go for a leadership change and announce policies that could influence voters. At that point, Team Anna might have lost its appeal or would have turned favourable to the UPA.
Thus now is the moment for the BJP. The party realises this. It shows in his aggressive actions in Parliament and outside it. But there is a catch here. Are the allies in the NDA ready for it?
Without allies on board, the BJP’s political game plan is bound to crashland.
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